Four big bad stock market can force Liu Shiyu amplification trick-3edyy

The four major stock market bad can forced Liu Shiyu to enlarge trick the sina finance opinion leaders column (WeChat public kopleader) columnist Xiao Lei China only hope future stock market still depends on the "reform", the registration system will not only push, but also to open and aboveboard or reservations; the regulatory level requires a radical change of ideas, the introduction of international capital market. Change the exchange position, so that A shares gradually into the global market. Whether the stock market four big bad Liu Shiyu, forced to enlarge trick chicken coaching chicken coaching has always been a taboo, the market did not even know why Xiao Gang was dismissed (Xiao Gang term stock index rose 26%), because the reform is slow? Bailout is bad? Or "fuse mechanism" to blame? The stock market is still in the China actually very fragile "rescue" and the reform of the window period, it can be said as a battlefield, the parties prepared to meet the challenge to the entire market, this move means to set goals and coordinate the expectations of all parties, the huge cost of time. At present, the market did not see the new president took office, a specific timetable for reform or clear policy direction, in addition to very vague on strengthening supervision and other official speeches, "abnormal silence", investors on the stock market reform is expected to add more vacant, today the crash may is to break the silence "?! Two, to enhance the attractiveness of other market gradually opening up the inter-bank bond market: Chinese bond market, the risk aversion of the occasion, the bond market demand began to increase, investors guaranteed to protect the demand is far greater than in the stock market to the risk return, bond type financial products sales increase. The housing market: after several rounds of stimulation, the real estate market to some investors, north of Guangzhou Shenzhen and other luxury market sales, and these can swallow house funds is not simply on the real estate consumer funds, but more affluent of the hedge and investment demand of property, does not exclude the more a large outflow of money from the stock market into the real estate market. Gold market: the price of gold rose to many investors emotional stimulation, as in the stock market can not be ignored "Chinese aunt", back into the gold market, for the current stock market, further diversion of retail funds. Three, funds face tight M2 growth of 14% in January, and the amount of the credit scale, and did not let the whole financial market funds face more abundant, with the continued decline in foreign exchange, and Chinese financial market price driven by policy than the allocation of funds, it is difficult to provide higher efficiency, funds tend to be more precipitation in the "deposit or gold, house and other safe haven assets, liquidity decline further. This structured liquidity problem is difficult to make up for by the short-term liquidity solutions of the central bank. The flow of funds has entered a dead cycle, that is, the more goods are issued, the lower the efficiency; the lower the efficiency, the more frequent the liquidity problem, which accelerates the volatility of the stock market. At the same time, IPO enterprises listed, investors are more worried about money problems. More money before there is no clear policy orientation, thinking began to change, pocket for security,.

股市四大利空能否逼刘士余放大招   文 新浪财经意见领袖专栏(微信公众号kopleader)专栏作家 肖磊   未来中国股市唯一的希望依然得靠“改革”,注册制不仅要推,而且要正大光明、毫无保留的推;监管层面需要彻底转变思路,引入国际市场资金,转变交易所定位,让A股逐步融入到全球市场。 股市四大利空能否逼刘士余放大招   一、临阵换帅   临阵换帅历来是兵家大忌,市场甚至不知道肖钢为什么会被免职(肖钢任期内沪指上涨了26%),是因为改革推进较慢?救市不利?还是“熔断机制”惹的祸?中国股市实际上还处在非常脆弱的“救市”和改革窗口期,可以说如临战场,各方严阵以待,此时换帅对于整个市场来说意味着重新树立目标和协调各方期待,时间成本巨大。   截止目前,市场并没有看到新任主席上台后,有具体的改革时间表或明确的政策方向,除了非常模糊的关于“加强监管”等官方讲话之外,“异常寂静”,投资者对整个股票市场的改革预期愈加茫然,今日的大跌可能就是要打破这种“寂静”?!   二、其他市场吸引力增强   债市:中国逐步开放银行间等债券市场,在避险情绪高涨之际,债券市场的需求开始增大,投资者对保本保息的需求远大于在股市博取风险收益的需求,债券类理财产品销量大增。   房市:经过几轮的刺激之后,房地产市场重新被一些投资者关注,北上广深等地豪宅市场销售火爆,而这些能够吞下豪宅的资金,已经不是简单的对房产的消费类资金,而是更多富裕阶层对财产的避险及投资需求,不排除有更多的大户资金从股市流出进入房地产市场。   金市:黄金价格的上涨也给很多投资者带来了情绪上的刺激,作为股市里面不可忽视的“中国大妈”,重新涌入黄金市场,对当下的股市来说,进一步分流了散户资金。   三、资金面吃紧   14%的M2增长速度,以及1月份天量的信贷规模,并没有让整个金融市场的资金面更加充裕,随着外汇占款的持续下降,以及中国金融市场由政策而非价格主导的资金配置,难以提供更高的效率,资金往往更加沉淀于“存款”或黄金、房子等避险资产,流动性进一步下降。这种结构化的流动性问题,很难靠央行诸多短期流动性解决办法来弥补,资金的流动进入了一个死循环,即货超发越多,效率越低;效率越低,流动性问题越频繁,加速了股市波动。   与此同时,IPO企业扎堆上市,投资者更担心“圈钱”问题。更多的资金在没有搞清楚政策倾向之前,开始转变思路,落袋为安,资金流变得十分脆弱。   四、“救市”预期已大不如前   招商银行总行副行长赵驹近日质问,去年7月股市从高点下来以后监管层到底拿了多少资金,通过哪些渠道去救市场,现在并不是非常的清楚,而招行借给国家队—中证金的资金也在展期。   赵行长一句话,实际上揭开了中国股市另一个大问题。第一轮“救市”全民参与、气氛高昂,效果也比较明显,但等到第二轮、第三轮的时候,实际上各方都在考虑救市的代价和成本,救市的钱从哪里来?以后怎么还?更多投资者看到的是,“救市”的不可持续性。这导致股市在出现大幅下跌的时候,恐慌性更加严重。   后市应该看什么   关于大盘点位问题,我在三个多月前,沪指反弹至3600点,各方预计4000点近在咫尺,市场气氛非常活跃的时候,撰文提醒《为什么说4000点遥不可及》,文中表述比较详细,因此关于点位问题不再做判断。   股市的融资功能已面临比较大的挑战,这并不是股市本身有问题,而是我们应对股市的方法错了。国际诸多股票市场,交易所在争夺各类准备上市的企业,靠新上市企业来活跃市场、树立投资者信心、吸引各类投资者,因此每每有企业上市,大家欢迎还来不及。而中国目前恰恰相反,上市企业排成长队等待“摇号”,市场部分投资者期待“中奖”,而更多的投资者谈IPO色变。   当股市失去融资功能,IPO搞不动的时候,股市改革才会有希望。2005至2007年的牛市,其中一个不可忽视的推动力是股权分置改革,其给市场注入了信心,但股权分置改革并没有解决国有企业上市圈钱问题,低效率、大市值、投资者无参与感的大型国有企业陆续上市,抽走了市场大部分活跃资金,就算是2008年后“四万亿”的刺激,也没能再次找回牛市。   2014年至2015年的这轮牛市,跟“改革”和“转型”基本没有太大关系,主要的推动力是中国金融机构已无法承担间接融资的比重,靠信贷支撑的中国经济差一点被债务压垮,政策面不得不想尽所有办法拉抬股市(比如加杠杆),各类资金的入市迅速扩大了股市融资比例,从一定层面化解了“债务危机”,但也造成了严重的泡沫,以至于当泡沫破裂时,大批股民一夜回到解放前,恍如隔世。   未来中国股市唯一的希望依然得靠“改革”,注册制不仅要推,而且要正大光明、毫无保留的推;监管层面需要彻底转变思路,引入国际市场资金,转变交易所定位,让A股逐步融入到全球市场,交易所之间首先要形成各类竞争,促使其并购、扩张,形成强大的自我监管和对市场的审查力、影响力。   另外,要降低国有企业“圈钱”比例,让股票市场真正为民营企业服务,因为市场的基础是产权,只有产权清晰的企业,能够激活真正的价值投资者,如果投资者对所投资企业无法产生影响力,两者权利地位悬殊,就不可能留住长期资金。什么时候国有股市值下滑到总市值15%以下的时候,中国股市才不至于谈IPO色变,才会具备长期的繁荣和牛市基础。   (本文作者介绍:财经专栏作家)   本文为作者独家授权新浪财经使用,请勿转载。所发表言论不代表本站观点。相关的主题文章:

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